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I think you "hit the nail on the head" when you basically said that if you/we don't work for the top-secret spy organizations you/we (the general public) really won't ever know the truth.
Yup it's true. I'm sure there's some truth flying around there somewhere but we don't know which bit it is :)
We are all mere mortals when it comes to factual evidence and as a result we have to rely on the media. That's all we can do. When we see evidence provided by people like Donald Rumsfeld and Colin Powell then I personally have no reason to disbelieve or doubt it. The evidence speaks for itself, especially with satellite pictures. You would have to have some sort of serious paranoia or a hardon for conspiracy theories to think they had been faked and whatnot.
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Until then, I've stocked up on ammo, tequila & duct tape.
Hehe, I know what the duct tape and tequila is for but the ammo?