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Prognosticating

 

 

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rarohde at gmail

Nov 10, 2008, 9:59 PM

Post #1 of 4 (1123 views)
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Prognosticating

After 6 days, the fund drive appears to have taken $450,000 (not
counting the $1.9M of that was in the counter before the drive
started).

Comparing that total to the way that previous drives have evolved, I'd
guesstimate that after 60 days the current drive will have generated
$2.9 +/- 0.9M in community donations, not counting any additional
major donor contributions that the WMF may arrange during that time.

Based on the figures in the annual report, $2.9M would appear to
exceed expectations for community giving (currently stated as $3M for
the current fiscal year, and assuming that at least $1M in community
giving occurs as donations during non-fundraiser months).

-Robert Rohde

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poeloq at gmail

Nov 10, 2008, 10:34 PM

Post #2 of 4 (1040 views)
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Re: Prognosticating [In reply to]

What statistical method do you use to calculate 2.9 Million?

Ian

On 11/11/08, Robert Rohde <rarohde [at] gmail> wrote:
> After 6 days, the fund drive appears to have taken $450,000 (not
> counting the $1.9M of that was in the counter before the drive
> started).
>
> Comparing that total to the way that previous drives have evolved, I'd
> guesstimate that after 60 days the current drive will have generated
> $2.9 +/- 0.9M in community donations, not counting any additional
> major donor contributions that the WMF may arrange during that time.
>
> Based on the figures in the annual report, $2.9M would appear to
> exceed expectations for community giving (currently stated as $3M for
> the current fiscal year, and assuming that at least $1M in community
> giving occurs as donations during non-fundraiser months).
>
> -Robert Rohde
>
> _______________________________________________
> foundation-l mailing list
> foundation-l [at] lists
> Unsubscribe: https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/foundation-l
>

--
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gerard.meijssen at gmail

Nov 10, 2008, 10:36 PM

Post #3 of 4 (1025 views)
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Re: Prognosticating [In reply to]

Hoi,
This is good. We can use more money.. But this money will only be there when
the current trend will continue. We have seen last year that it does not
work that way. So just see how it progresses and when we gain more money
then expected, we can cheer and find appropriate ways to spend it.
Thanks,
GerardM

On Tue, Nov 11, 2008 at 6:59 AM, Robert Rohde <rarohde [at] gmail> wrote:

> After 6 days, the fund drive appears to have taken $450,000 (not
> counting the $1.9M of that was in the counter before the drive
> started).
>
> Comparing that total to the way that previous drives have evolved, I'd
> guesstimate that after 60 days the current drive will have generated
> $2.9 +/- 0.9M in community donations, not counting any additional
> major donor contributions that the WMF may arrange during that time.
>
> Based on the figures in the annual report, $2.9M would appear to
> exceed expectations for community giving (currently stated as $3M for
> the current fiscal year, and assuming that at least $1M in community
> giving occurs as donations during non-fundraiser months).
>
> -Robert Rohde
>
> _______________________________________________
> foundation-l mailing list
> foundation-l [at] lists
> Unsubscribe: https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/foundation-l
>
_______________________________________________
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rarohde at gmail

Nov 10, 2008, 10:48 PM

Post #4 of 4 (1026 views)
Permalink
Re: Prognosticating [In reply to]

As I said, I assumed the current trend falls off in a similar way to
the way the trend has evolved during the last four fundraisers. The
uncertainty is based on roughly the extrapolated range in evolution
between those past examples.

-Robert Rohde

On Mon, Nov 10, 2008 at 10:36 PM, Gerard Meijssen
<gerard.meijssen [at] gmail> wrote:
> Hoi,
> This is good. We can use more money.. But this money will only be there when
> the current trend will continue. We have seen last year that it does not
> work that way. So just see how it progresses and when we gain more money
> then expected, we can cheer and find appropriate ways to spend it.
> Thanks,
> GerardM
>
> On Tue, Nov 11, 2008 at 6:59 AM, Robert Rohde <rarohde [at] gmail> wrote:
>
>> After 6 days, the fund drive appears to have taken $450,000 (not
>> counting the $1.9M of that was in the counter before the drive
>> started).
>>
>> Comparing that total to the way that previous drives have evolved, I'd
>> guesstimate that after 60 days the current drive will have generated
>> $2.9 +/- 0.9M in community donations, not counting any additional
>> major donor contributions that the WMF may arrange during that time.
>>
>> Based on the figures in the annual report, $2.9M would appear to
>> exceed expectations for community giving (currently stated as $3M for
>> the current fiscal year, and assuming that at least $1M in community
>> giving occurs as donations during non-fundraiser months).
>>
>> -Robert Rohde
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> foundation-l mailing list
>> foundation-l [at] lists
>> Unsubscribe: https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/foundation-l
>>
> _______________________________________________
> foundation-l mailing list
> foundation-l [at] lists
> Unsubscribe: https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/foundation-l
>

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