Login | Register For Free | Help
Search for: (Advanced)

Mailing List Archive: NANOG: users

fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion

 

 

NANOG users RSS feed   Index | Next | Previous | View Threaded


mleber at he

May 2, 2008, 11:51 AM

Post #1 of 23 (632 views)
Permalink
fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion

Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
until IPv4 exhaustion:

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

Do you have an IPv6 plan?

How long do you think it will be until Sarbanes Oxley and SAS 70 auditors
start requiring disclosure of IPv4 exhaustion as a business continuity
risk, as well as the presence or lack thereof of an IPv6 plan?

When do you plan on telling your customers? (afterwards?)

Ahhh, you don't have any customers that have to plan to buy equipment 2
years in advance. Ok, I understand.

Mike.
ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
that?

pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)

ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry, sorry...

+----------------- H U R R I C A N E - E L E C T R I C -----------------+
| Mike Leber Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit 510 580 4100 |
| Hurricane Electric Web Hosting Colocation AS6939 |
| mleber[at]he.net http://he.net |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


j at arpa

May 2, 2008, 2:40 PM

Post #2 of 23 (604 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

You first, mister chicken-with-his-head-cut-off.

What's your plan?

On Fri, May 2, 2008 at 1:51 PM, Mike Leber <mleber[at]he.net> wrote:

>
> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
>
> Do you have an IPv6 plan?
>
> How long do you think it will be until Sarbanes Oxley and SAS 70 auditors
> start requiring disclosure of IPv4 exhaustion as a business continuity
> risk, as well as the presence or lack thereof of an IPv6 plan?
>
> When do you plan on telling your customers? (afterwards?)
>
> Ahhh, you don't have any customers that have to plan to buy equipment 2
> years in advance. Ok, I understand.
>
> Mike.
> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
> that?
>
> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
>
> ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry, sorry...
>
> +----------------- H U R R I C A N E - E L E C T R I C -----------------+
> | Mike Leber Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit 510 580 4100 |
> | Hurricane Electric Web Hosting Colocation AS6939 |
> | mleber[at]he.net http://he.net |
> +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> NANOG mailing list
> NANOG[at]nanog.org
> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>



--
Would you like a little bit of legal advice?
NEVER let a scientist use the words "unanticipated" and "immediate" in the
same sentence.
Okay? Okay.
_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


patrick at ianai

May 2, 2008, 2:47 PM

Post #3 of 23 (603 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

On May 2, 2008, at 5:40 PM, jamie wrote:

> You first, mister chicken-with-his-head-cut-off.
>
> What's your plan?

Mike owns Hurricane Electric. HE.net has the most v6 routes, peering,
and pretty much any other metric you can dream up. His .sig says
"Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit". What do you think his plan is?

More important question: Perhaps you should spend 15 seconds
researching things before you send obviously ignorant comments to 10K
of your not-so-close friends?

--
TTFN,
patrick



> On Fri, May 2, 2008 at 1:51 PM, Mike Leber <mleber[at]he.net> wrote:
>
>>
>> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days
>> projected
>> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>>
>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
>>
>> Do you have an IPv6 plan?
>>
>> How long do you think it will be until Sarbanes Oxley and SAS 70
>> auditors
>> start requiring disclosure of IPv4 exhaustion as a business
>> continuity
>> risk, as well as the presence or lack thereof of an IPv6 plan?
>>
>> When do you plan on telling your customers? (afterwards?)
>>
>> Ahhh, you don't have any customers that have to plan to buy
>> equipment 2
>> years in advance. Ok, I understand.
>>
>> Mike.
>> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people
>> do
>> that?
>>
>> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
>>
>> ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry,
>> sorry...
>>
>> +----------------- H U R R I C A N E - E L E C T R I C
>> -----------------+
>> | Mike Leber Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit 510 580
>> 4100 |
>> | Hurricane Electric Web Hosting Colocation
>> AS6939 |
>> | mleber[at]he.net http://he.net
>> |
>> +
>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------+
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> NANOG mailing list
>> NANOG[at]nanog.org
>> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>>
>
>
>
> --
> Would you like a little bit of legal advice?
> NEVER let a scientist use the words "unanticipated" and "immediate"
> in the
> same sentence.
> Okay? Okay.
> _______________________________________________
> NANOG mailing list
> NANOG[at]nanog.org
> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


deepak at ai

May 2, 2008, 2:53 PM

Post #4 of 23 (603 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

>
> ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry, sorry...
>


Does it take most network operators more than 1000 days to make an IPv6
plan and start implementing it?

I suppose there is always some network running obsolete gear out
somewhere, but their upstream guy may provide them something to avoid
the pain (like reclaimed v4 space) or a gateway or other service.

I guess another way to say it is... if you can afford for the planning
and implementation to have so many layers of sign-off and buy-in it
takes years, you can afford the costs, in everything else, to implement it.

Not to mention, piggyback off of all the published BCPs, improved tools
and software, and other things that 2 more years will provide.

Deepak Jain
AiNET

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


copraphage at gmail

May 2, 2008, 2:55 PM

Post #5 of 23 (603 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

Mike and HE are all over that ipv6



On 5/2/08, jamie <j[at]arpa.com> wrote:
> You first, mister chicken-with-his-head-cut-off.
>
> What's your plan?
>
> On Fri, May 2, 2008 at 1:51 PM, Mike Leber <mleber[at]he.net> wrote:
>
> >
> > Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
> > until IPv4 exhaustion:
> >
> > http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
> >
> > Do you have an IPv6 plan?
> >
> > How long do you think it will be until Sarbanes Oxley and SAS 70 auditors
> > start requiring disclosure of IPv4 exhaustion as a business continuity
> > risk, as well as the presence or lack thereof of an IPv6 plan?
> >
> > When do you plan on telling your customers? (afterwards?)
> >
> > Ahhh, you don't have any customers that have to plan to buy equipment 2
> > years in advance. Ok, I understand.
> >
> > Mike.
> > ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
> > that?
> >
> > pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
> >
> > ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry, sorry...
> >
> > +----------------- H U R R I C A N E - E L E C T R I C -----------------+
> > | Mike Leber Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit 510 580 4100 |
> > | Hurricane Electric Web Hosting Colocation AS6939 |
> > | mleber[at]he.net http://he.net |
> > +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > NANOG mailing list
> > NANOG[at]nanog.org
> > http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
> >
>
>
>
> --
> Would you like a little bit of legal advice?
> NEVER let a scientist use the words "unanticipated" and "immediate" in the
> same sentence.
> Okay? Okay.
> _______________________________________________
> NANOG mailing list
> NANOG[at]nanog.org
> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>

--
Sent from Gmail for mobile | mobile.google.com

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


marc at let

May 2, 2008, 3:01 PM

Post #6 of 23 (603 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

> What's your plan?

some of the prefered ip4 strategies could be exclusive ipsex ;)

http://www.ipv6porn.com/

or :

http://www.bieringer.de/pb/lectures/PB-IPv6-SUCON-2004.pdf

regards

Marc

P.S.
> 10K
> of your not-so-close friends?

does this mean this list has 10.000 subscribers ?

--
How do I quote correctly
http://www.netmeister.org/news/learn2quote.html

> On Fri, May 2, 2008 at 1:51 PM, Mike Leber <mleber[at]he.net> wrote:
>> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)

--
"Use your imagination not to scare yourself to death
but to inspire yourself to life."

Les enfants teribbles - research and deployment
Marc Manthey - head of research and innovation
Hildeboldplatz 1a D - 50672 Köln - Germany
Tel.:0049-221-3558032
Mobil:0049-1577-3329231
jabber :marc[at]kgraff.net
blog : http://www.let.de
ipv6 http://www.ipsix.org
xing : https://www.xing.com/profile/Marc_Manthey

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


james.cutler at consultant

May 2, 2008, 3:09 PM

Post #7 of 23 (604 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

Yes -- spent mostly on getting management approval.

On May 2, 2008, at 5:53 PM, Deepak Jain wrote:

>> Does it take most network operators more than 1000 days to make an
>> IPv6
> plan and start implementing it?

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


patrick at ianai

May 2, 2008, 9:42 PM

Post #8 of 23 (589 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

On May 2, 2008, at 6:01 PM, Marc Manthey wrote:

>> P.S.
>> 10K of your not-so-close friends?
>
> does this mean this list has 10.000 subscribers ?

I've heard all kinds of numbers, you can probably dig something out of
the archives.

But my understanding is there are far greater than 10K mailboxes which
receive NANOG, especially if you include exploders. Could someone
from the mail admin team confirm?

--
TTFN,
patrick


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


tim at yocum

May 2, 2008, 9:48 PM

Post #9 of 23 (591 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

All,

Patrick is correct - the subscriber count is just north of 10k; likely
far greater readership considering web archives, remailers, etc.

- Tim



On 5/2/08, Patrick W. Gilmore <patrick[at]ianai.net> wrote:
> On May 2, 2008, at 6:01 PM, Marc Manthey wrote:
>
> >> P.S.
> >> 10K of your not-so-close friends?
> >
> > does this mean this list has 10.000 subscribers ?
>
> I've heard all kinds of numbers, you can probably dig something out of
> the archives.
>
> But my understanding is there are far greater than 10K mailboxes which
> receive NANOG, especially if you include exploders. Could someone
> from the mail admin team confirm?
>
> --
> TTFN,
> patrick
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> NANOG mailing list
> NANOG[at]nanog.org
> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


joelja at bogus

May 3, 2008, 12:14 AM

Post #10 of 23 (592 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> On Sat, 3 May 2008, Randy Bush wrote:
>
>> back office software
>> ip and dns management software
>> provisioning tools
>> cpe
>> measurement and monitoring and billing
>>
>> and, of course, backbone and aggregation equipment that can actually
>> handle real ipv6 traffic flows with acls and chocolate syrup.
>
> Not to mention, you want to be able to do the regular antispoofing etc and
> your security devices (which might be based on L2 switches doing DHCP
> snooping) doesn't do IPv6, so you need to replace them (or live with lower
> security) and this needs serious budget.

Or you'll have to revert to what you did before dhcp filtering switches.

Which was watch for replies from rogues and then update your mac filters
accordingly or drop the host onto a quarantine vlan. should work quite
well for rogue RAs and rogue dhcpv6 servers.

Obviously it's reactive rather than proactive but it can be quite
effective if automated.

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


gih at apnic

May 3, 2008, 8:10 PM

Post #11 of 23 (563 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

Mike Leber wrote:
> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

....

> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
> that?
>
> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
>


I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play
out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's
x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model
with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!

IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address
allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively
large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking
large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It
could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very
uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change
in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....

So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to
the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ...
but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years.

regards,

Geoff




_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


hescominsoon at emmanuelcomputerconsulting

May 3, 2008, 8:22 PM

Post #12 of 23 (560 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by
organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.

Geoff Huston wrote:
> Mike Leber wrote:
>> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
>> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>>
>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
>
> ....
>
>> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
>> that?
>>
>> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
>>
>
>
> I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play
> out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's
> x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model
> with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!
>
> IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address
> allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively
> large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking
> large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It
> could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very
> uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change
> in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....
>
> So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to
> the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ...
> but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years.
>
> regards,
>
> Geoff
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> NANOG mailing list
> NANOG[at]nanog.org
> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>

--
Registered Microsoft Partner

My "Foundation" verse:
Isa 54:17

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


nanog at daork

May 3, 2008, 8:35 PM

Post #13 of 23 (559 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

On 4/05/2008, at 3:22 PM, William Warren wrote:

> That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by
> organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.


Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really nice and make
that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/
LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), then I don't see how that's
relevant - whether they've got machines on those addresses or not,
from an outsider's point of view the address space is unavailable for
them to use.

..or, maybe your thought is that at some point these guys will start
using addresses in those /8s, and stop requesting new allocations from
their RIR/LIR, which will in turn slow down IPv4 allocations? I'm not
sure, but licking my finger and sticking it out the window suggests
that allocations to those with little-utilised /8s is a fairly small
percentage.

--
Nathan Ward


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


joelja at bogus

May 3, 2008, 8:37 PM

Post #14 of 23 (559 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

William Warren wrote:
> That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by
> organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.

which one's would those be?

legacy class A address space just isn't that big...

> Geoff Huston wrote:
>> Mike Leber wrote:
>>> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
>>> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>>>
>>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
>> ....
>>
>>> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
>>> that?
>>>
>>> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
>>>
>>
>> I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play
>> out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's
>> x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model
>> with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!
>>
>> IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address
>> allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively
>> large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking
>> large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It
>> could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very
>> uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change
>> in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....
>>
>> So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to
>> the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ...
>> but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years.
>>
>> regards,
>>
>> Geoff
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> NANOG mailing list
>> NANOG[at]nanog.org
>> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>>
>


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


ops.lists at gmail

May 3, 2008, 9:53 PM

Post #15 of 23 (559 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

Let's think smaller. /16 shall we say?

Like the /16 here. Originally the SRI / ARPANET SF Bay Packet Radio
network that started back in 1977. Now controlled by a shell company
belonging to a shell company belonging to a "high volume email
deployer" :)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2008/04/a_case_of_network_identity_the_1.html

srs

On Sun, May 4, 2008 at 9:07 AM, Joel Jaeggli <joelja[at]bogus.com> wrote:
> William Warren wrote:
> > That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by
> > organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
>
> which one's would those be?
>
> legacy class A address space just isn't that big...

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


vixie at isc

May 4, 2008, 9:39 AM

Post #16 of 23 (549 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 [In reply to]

nanog[at]daork.net (Nathan Ward) writes:

> > That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by
> > organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
>
> Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really nice and make
> that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/
> LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), ...

first, a parable:

in datacenters, it used to be that the scarce resource was rack space, but
then it was connectivity, and now it's power/heat/cooling. there are fallow
fields of empty racks too far from fiber routes or power grids to be filled,
all because the scarcity selector has moved over time. some folks who were
previously close to fiber routes and/or power grids found that they could
do greenfield construction and that the customers would naturally move in,
since too much older datacenter capacity was unusable by modern standards.

then, a recounting:

michael dillon asked a while back what could happen if MIT (holding 18/8)
were to go into the ISP business, offering dialup and/or tunnel/VPN access,
and bundling a /24 with each connection, and allowing each customer to
multihome if they so chose. nobody could think of an RIR rule, or an ISP
rule, or indeed anything else that could prevent this from occurring. now,
i don't think that MIT would do this, since it would be a distraction for
them, and they probably don't need the money, and they're good guys, anyway.

now, a prediction:

but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity now known as
spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as NXDOMAIN remapping,
or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that
the next great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is explosive
deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we can expect business plans
whereby well suited shysters march into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to
outsource this monetization. "you get half the money but none of the
distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or IPv6, we'll do
the rest." nothing in recorded human history argues against this occurring.
--
Paul Vixie

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


tomb at byrneit

May 4, 2008, 11:37 AM

Post #17 of 23 (546 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 [In reply to]

I'm not sure that I would tar everyone who does NXDOMAIN remapping with
the same brush as SPAM and DDOS. Handled the way OpenDNS does, on an
opt-in basis, it's a "good thing" IMO.

I would also say that disaggregating and remarketing dark address space,
assuming it's handled above board and in a way that doesn't break the
'net, could be a "very good thing". The artifact of MIT and others
having /8s while the entire Indian subcontinent scrapes for /29s, can
hardly be considered optimal or right. It's time for the supposedly
altruistic good guys to do the right thing, and give back the resources
they are not using, that are sorely needed. How about they resell it and
use the money to make getting an education affordable?

The routing prefix problem, OTOH, is an artificial shortage caused by
(mostly one) commercial entities maximizing their bottom line by
producing products that were obviously underpowered at the time they
were designed, so as to minimize component costs, and ensure users
upgraded due to planned obsolescence.

Can you give me a good technical reason, in this day of 128 bit network
processors that can handle 10GigE, why remapping the entire IPv4 address
space into /27s and propagating all the prefixes is a real engineering
problem? Especially if those end-points are relatively stable as to
connectivity, the allocations are non-portable, and you aggregate.

How is fork-lifting the existing garbage for better IPv4 routers any
worse than migrating to IPv6? At least with an IPv4 infrastructure
overhaul, it's relatively transparent to the end user. It's not
either/or anyway. Ideally you would have an IPv6 capable router that
could do IPv4 without being babied as to prefix table size or update
rate.

IPv4 has enough addresses for every computer on Earth, and then some.

That having been said, I think going to IPv6 has a lot of other benefits
that make it worthwhile.

YMMV, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda



> -----Original Message-----
> From: Paul Vixie [mailto:vixie[at]isc.org]
> Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:39 AM
> To: nanog[at]merit.edu
> Subject: Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4
>
> nanog[at]daork.net (Nathan Ward) writes:
>
> > > That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are
> being hoarded
> > > by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
> >
> > Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really
> nice and make
> > that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/
> > LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), ...
>
> first, a parable:
>
> in datacenters, it used to be that the scarce resource was
> rack space, but then it was connectivity, and now it's
> power/heat/cooling. there are fallow fields of empty racks
> too far from fiber routes or power grids to be filled, all
> because the scarcity selector has moved over time. some
> folks who were previously close to fiber routes and/or power
> grids found that they could do greenfield construction and
> that the customers would naturally move in, since too much
> older datacenter capacity was unusable by modern standards.
>
> then, a recounting:
>
> michael dillon asked a while back what could happen if MIT
> (holding 18/8) were to go into the ISP business, offering
> dialup and/or tunnel/VPN access, and bundling a /24 with each
> connection, and allowing each customer to multihome if they
> so chose. nobody could think of an RIR rule, or an ISP rule,
> or indeed anything else that could prevent this from
> occurring. now, i don't think that MIT would do this, since
> it would be a distraction for them, and they probably don't
> need the money, and they're good guys, anyway.
>
> now, a prediction:
>
> but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity
> now known as spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now
> known as NXDOMAIN remapping, or the ones who saw the
> opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that the next
> great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is
> explosive deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we
> can expect business plans whereby well suited shysters march
> into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to outsource this
> monetization. "you get half the money but none of the
> distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or
> IPv6, we'll do the rest." nothing in recorded human history
> argues against this occurring.
> --
> Paul Vixie
>
> _______________________________________________
> NANOG mailing list
> NANOG[at]nanog.org
> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


paul at vix

May 4, 2008, 12:08 PM

Post #18 of 23 (547 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 [In reply to]

> I'm not sure that I would tar everyone who does NXDOMAIN remapping with
> the same brush as SPAM and DDOS. Handled the way OpenDNS does, on an
> opt-in basis, it's a "good thing" IMO.

i agree, and i'm on record as saying that since opendns doesn't affect the
people who do not knowingly sign up for it, and that it's free even to folks
who opt out of the remapping, it is not an example of inappropriate trust
monetization (as it would be if your hotel or ISP did it do you without your
consent, or, offered you no alternative, or, offered you no opt-out.)

> I would also say that disaggregating and remarketing dark address space,
> assuming it's handled above board and in a way that doesn't break the
> 'net, could be a "very good thing".

that's a "very big if".

> The routing prefix problem, OTOH, is an artificial shortage caused by
> (mostly one) commercial entities maximizing their bottom line by
> producing products that were obviously underpowered at the time they
> were designed, so as to minimize component costs, and ensure users
> upgraded due to planned obsolescence.

i completely disagree, but, assuming you were right, what do you propose do
do about it, or propose that we all do about it, to avoid having it lead
to some kind of global meltdown if new prefixes start appearing "too fast"?

> Can you give me a good technical reason, in this day of 128 bit network
> processors that can handle 10GigE, why remapping the entire IPv4 address
> space into /27s and propagating all the prefixes is a real engineering
> problem? Especially if those end-points are relatively stable as to
> connectivity, the allocations are non-portable, and you aggregate.

you almost had me there. i was going to quote some stuff i remember tony li
saying about routing physics at the denver ARIN meeting, and i was going to
explain three year depreciation cycles, global footprints, training, release
trains, and some graph theory stuff like number of edges, number of nodes,
size of edge, natural instability. couldn't been fun, especially since many
people on this mailing list know the topic better than i do and we could've
gone all week with folks correcting eachother in the ways they corrected me.

but the endpoints aren't "stable" at all, not even "relatively." and the
allocations are naturally "portable". and "aggregation" won't be occurring.
so, rather than answer your "technical reason" question, i'll say, we're in
a same planet different worlds scenario here. we don't share assumptions
that would make a joint knowledge quest fruitful.

> How is fork-lifting the existing garbage for better IPv4 routers any
> worse than migrating to IPv6? At least with an IPv4 infrastructure
> overhaul, it's relatively transparent to the end user. It's not
> either/or anyway. Ideally you would have an IPv6 capable router that
> could do IPv4 without being babied as to prefix table size or update
> rate.

forklifting in routers that can speak ipv6 means that when we're done, the
new best-known limiting factor to internet growth will be something other
than the size of the address space. and noting that the lesser-known factor
that's actually much more real and much more important is number of prefixes,
there is some hope that the resulting ipv6 table won't have quite as much
nearly-pure crap in it as the current ipv4 has. eventually we will of course
fill it with TE, but by the time that can happen, routing physics will have
improved some. my hope is that by the time a midlevel third tier multihomed
ISP needs a dozen two-megaroute dual stack 500Gbit/sec routers to keep up
with other people's TE routes, then, such things will be available on e-bay.

everything about IP is transparent to the end user. they just want to click
on stuff and get action at a distance. dual stack ipv4/ipv6 does that pretty
well already, for those running macos, vista, linux, or bsd, whose providers
and SOHO boxes are offering dual-stack. there's reason to expect that end
users will continue to neither know nor care what kind of IP they are using,
whether ipv6 takes off, or doesn't.

> IPv4 has enough addresses for every computer on Earth, and then some.

if only we didn't need IP addresses for every coffee cup, light switch,
door knob, power outlet, TV remote control, cell phone, and so on, then we
could almost certainly live with IPv4 and NAT. however, i'd like to stay
on track toward digitizing everything, wiring most stuff, unwiring the rest,
and otherwise making a true internet of everything in the real world, and
not just the world's computers.

> That having been said, I think going to IPv6 has a lot of other benefits
> that make it worthwhile.

me too.

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


joelja at bogus

May 4, 2008, 12:12 PM

Post #19 of 23 (547 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 [In reply to]

Tomas L. Byrnes wrote:

> IPv4 has enough addresses for every computer on Earth, and then some.

There are approximately 3.4 billion or a little less usable ip
addresses. there are 3.3 billion mobile phone users buying approximately
400,000 ip capable devices a day. That's a single industy,
notwithstanding how the are presently employed what do you think those
deployments are going to look like in 5 years? in 10?

How many ip addresses do you need to nat 100 million customers? how much
state do you have to carry to do port demux for their traffic?

I guess making it all scale is someone else's problem...

> That having been said, I think going to IPv6 has a lot of other benefits
> that make it worthwhile.
>
> YMMV, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda
>
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Paul Vixie [mailto:vixie[at]isc.org]
>> Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:39 AM
>> To: nanog[at]merit.edu
>> Subject: Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4
>>
>> nanog[at]daork.net (Nathan Ward) writes:
>>
>>>> That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are
>> being hoarded
>>>> by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
>>> Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really
>> nice and make
>>> that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/
>>> LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), ...
>> first, a parable:
>>
>> in datacenters, it used to be that the scarce resource was
>> rack space, but then it was connectivity, and now it's
>> power/heat/cooling. there are fallow fields of empty racks
>> too far from fiber routes or power grids to be filled, all
>> because the scarcity selector has moved over time. some
>> folks who were previously close to fiber routes and/or power
>> grids found that they could do greenfield construction and
>> that the customers would naturally move in, since too much
>> older datacenter capacity was unusable by modern standards.
>>
>> then, a recounting:
>>
>> michael dillon asked a while back what could happen if MIT
>> (holding 18/8) were to go into the ISP business, offering
>> dialup and/or tunnel/VPN access, and bundling a /24 with each
>> connection, and allowing each customer to multihome if they
>> so chose. nobody could think of an RIR rule, or an ISP rule,
>> or indeed anything else that could prevent this from
>> occurring. now, i don't think that MIT would do this, since
>> it would be a distraction for them, and they probably don't
>> need the money, and they're good guys, anyway.
>>
>> now, a prediction:
>>
>> but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity
>> now known as spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now
>> known as NXDOMAIN remapping, or the ones who saw the
>> opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that the next
>> great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is
>> explosive deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we
>> can expect business plans whereby well suited shysters march
>> into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to outsource this
>> monetization. "you get half the money but none of the
>> distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or
>> IPv6, we'll do the rest." nothing in recorded human history
>> argues against this occurring.
>> --
>> Paul Vixie
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> NANOG mailing list
>> NANOG[at]nanog.org
>> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> NANOG mailing list
> NANOG[at]nanog.org
> http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
>


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


randy at psg

May 4, 2008, 8:00 PM

Post #20 of 23 (530 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 [In reply to]

> but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity now known as
> spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as NXDOMAIN remapping,
> or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that
> the next great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is explosive
> deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we can expect business plans
> whereby well suited shysters march into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to
> outsource this monetization. "you get half the money but none of the
> distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or IPv6, we'll do
> the rest." nothing in recorded human history argues against this occurring.

paul, this is not the spanish inquisition or the great crusades.
nothing in human history argues against a lot of fantasies and black
helicopters. and yes, some of them actually come true, c.f. iraq. but
i have a business to run, not a religious crusade. there is no news at
eleven, just more work to do.

some time back what we now call legacy space was given out under
policies which seemed like a good idea at the time. [. interestingly,
these policies were similar to the policies being used or considered for
ipv6 allocations today, what we later think of as large chunks that may
or may not be really well utilized. have you seen the proposal in ripe
to give everyone with v4 space a big chunk of v6 space whether they want
it or not? ] the people who gave those allocations and the people (or
organizations) who received them were not evil, stupid, or greedy. they
were just early adopters, incurring the risks and occasional benefits.

maybe it benefits arin's desperate search for a post-ipv4-free-pool era
business model to cast these allocation holders as evil (see the video
of arin's lawyer at nanog and some silly messages on the arin ppml
list), with the fantasy that there is enough legacy space that arin can
survive with its old business model for an extra year or two. i think
of this as analogous to the record companies sending the lawyers out
instead of joining the 21st century and getting on the front of the
wave. i hope that the result in arin's case is not analogously tragic.

arin's legacy registration agreement is quite lopsided, as has been
pointed out multiple times. the holder grants and gives up rights and
gains little they do not already have. but i am sure there will be some
who will sign it. heck, some people click on phishing links.

i suggest we focus on how to roll out v6 or give up and get massive
natting to work well (yuchhh!) and not waste our time rearranging the
deck chairs [0] or characterizing those with chairs as evil.

randy

---

[0] my wife used to admonish folk to think about those fools on the
titanic who declined dessert.

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


drc at virtualized

May 4, 2008, 8:01 PM

Post #21 of 23 (529 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

On May 3, 2008, at 8:37 PM, Joel Jaeggli wrote:
> William Warren wrote:
>> That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded
>> by
>> organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
> which one's would those be?

While I wouldn't call it hoarding, can any single (non-ISP)
organization actually justify a /8? How many students does MIT have
again?

> legacy class A address space just isn't that big...

There is more legacy space (IANA_Registry + VARIOUS, using Geoff's
labels) than all space allocated by the RIRs combined.

Regards,
-drc


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


drc at virtualized

May 4, 2008, 8:21 PM

Post #22 of 23 (530 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 [In reply to]

On May 4, 2008, at 11:37 AM, Tomas L. Byrnes wrote:
> The artifact of MIT and others
> having /8s while the entire Indian subcontinent scrapes for /29s, can
> hardly be considered optimal or right.

While perhaps intended as hyperbole, this sort of statement annoys me
as it demonstrates an ignorance of how address allocation mechanisms
work. It may be the case that organizations in India (usually people
cite China, but whatever) might "scrape for /29s", but that is not
because of a lack of address space at APNIC, but rather policies
imposed by the carrier(s)/PTT/government.

> It's time for the supposedly
> altruistic good guys to do the right thing, and give back the
> resources
> they are not using, that are sorely needed.

"For the good of the Internet" died some while back. There is
currently no incentive for anyone with more address space than they
need to return that address space.

> How about they resell it and
> use the money to make getting an education affordable?

If you believe this appropriate, I suggest you raise it on
ppml[at]arin.net and see what sort of reaction you get.

> The routing prefix problem, OTOH, is an artificial shortage caused by
> (mostly one) commercial entities maximizing their bottom line
> [...]
> Especially if those end-points are relatively stable as to
> connectivity, the allocations are non-portable, and you aggregate.

A free market doesn't work like that, prefixes aren't stable, and the
problem is that you can't aggregate. If you're actually interested in
this topic, I might suggest looking at the IRTF RRG working group
archives.

> IPv4 has enough addresses for every computer on Earth, and then some.

Unless you NAT out every bodily orifice, not even close.

Regards,
-drc


_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog


iljitsch at muada

May 5, 2008, 1:55 AM

Post #23 of 23 (521 views)
Permalink
Re: fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion [In reply to]

On 2 mei 2008, at 20:51, Mike Leber wrote:

> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days
> projected
> until IPv4 exhaustion:

> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

Unfortunately that won't load for me over IPv6, path MTU black hole...

> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
> that?

Since the only people who can get really large blocks of IP addresses
are the people who already have really large blocks of IP addresses,
the eventual distribution of large blocks won't differ much depending
on whether there will be a rush or not. Obviously the 99% of requests
that use up only 17% of the space each year are of no importance in
the grand scheme of things.

I was about to write that 1000 days is too optimistic/pessimistic, but
(after trying to compensate for ARIN's strange book keeping practices)
it looks like in 2006, 163 million addresses were given out, 196 in
2007. If the next few years also see an increase of 20% in yearly
address use, then 1000 days sounds about right.

That means we'd have to use up 235 million addresses this year, while
so far we're at 73 million, which puts us on track for 219 million. So
maybe it will be 1050 days (which leaves us exactly a million
addresses per day).

BTW, about the India thing: they should take their cue from China,
which only had a few million addresses at the turn of the century but
is now in the number two spot at ~ 150 million addresses. (Comparison:
the US holds 1.4 billion, India 15 million, just behind Sweden which
has 17 million.) China is now the biggest user of new address space.

http://www.bgpexpert.com/addressespercountry.php
http://www.bgpexpert.com/ianaglobalpool.php
http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace2007.php

(Make it "www.ipv4.bgpexpert..." if you have trouble reaching the site
over v6.)

_______________________________________________
NANOG mailing list
NANOG[at]nanog.org
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog

NANOG users RSS feed   Index | Next | Previous | View Threaded
 
 


Interested in having your list archived? Contact lists@gossamer-threads.com
 
  Web Applications & Managed Hosting Powered by Gossamer Threads Inc.